Bitcoin’s Value Could Surge by 62% with Potential Catalyst, Predicts Analyst
September 9, 2024
The value of Bitcoin saw an increase over three consecutive days as investors seized the opportunity to buy the dip before the anticipated debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, along with the release of the closely monitored U.S. inflation report. Bitcoin (BTC) surged to $55,700, while Ethereum (ETH) climbed to $2,320. This surge coincided with a positive trend in the stock market, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices all experiencing gains of more than 1%. These assets rebounded following a mixed jobs report that showed a decrease in the jobless rate to 4.2% and a strengthening of wage growth.
An analyst at Bernstein, a significant player on Wall Street, expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s future performance ahead of the Trump and Harris debate. The analyst predicted that if Trump emerges victorious in November, Bitcoin could soar to $90,000, marking a 62% increase from its levels on Sep. 8. Conversely, the analyst foresees Bitcoin dropping to as low as $30,000 if Harris wins. Bernstein, a part of AllianceBernstein, manages assets worth over $700 billion and boasts a market capitalization exceeding $3.8 billion.
The analyst from Bernstein believes that a Trump victory would lead to a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, contrasting with the approach of Gary Gensler, who has faced criticism from many in the crypto industry for his emphasis on regulation through enforcement. Trump has pledged to dismiss Gensler and support the crypto sector, promising not to permit the sale of government-held Bitcoins and advocating for the U.S. to become a leading Bitcoin mining hub.
Despite the political landscape, historical data suggests that Bitcoin tends to perform well irrespective of the occupant of the White House. The cryptocurrency has achieved record highs under every president since its inception, reaching a peak of $73,800 during Joe Biden’s presidency under Gensler’s oversight.
The Federal Reserve’s actions, particularly in response to easing inflation, could serve as another potential driver for Bitcoin’s performance. Economists anticipate that the Consumer Price Index for August will show a decline to 2.6%. If this holds true, the Fed might implement a 0.50% rate cut at its upcoming September meeting, a move that typically benefits Bitcoin and other high-risk assets.
To reach the projected $90,000 mark, Bitcoin will need to surpass the 200-day Exponential Moving Average at $60,000 and break above the descending trendline linking the highest swings since March.
