XRP Price Projection: Will XRP Maintain Above Its Trendline?
July 4, 2026
On July 4, XRP was trading at $1.1467, experiencing a 1.13% increase and approaching a descending trendline that has been a resistance point in previous rallies since May. The current market condition is seen as a potential breakout, but confirmation will only come after maintaining a position above the trendline for several hours.
Examining the daily chart, it is evident that XRP has surpassed a steep descending trendline originating from the May highs. However, there is a cautious approach as the price needs to sustain its position above the trendline for a significant duration to validate the breakout. In early June, a similar attempt to break the trendline resulted in a negative outcome, reinforcing the need for caution in the current scenario. The Parabolic SAR at $1.0072 is now situated comfortably below the price level, indicating a shift in short-term momentum post a rebound from the $1.00 support level.
Various Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) continue to influence the price action. The 20-day EMA at $1.1094 aligns closely with the current price, with the 50-day EMA at $1.1850 being the next level to watch, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.2908 and the 200-day EMA at $1.5025, significantly above the current price level. The intraday support stands at $1.1304, along with the SAR floor at $1.0072, while resistance is expected at the 50-day EMA at $1.1850 and the 100-day EMA at $1.2908.
Santiment, an on-chain analytics firm, highlighted that XRP’s 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratio are at approximately -45% and -47%, respectively, reaching historic lows. The MVRV ratio measures the average holder’s position relative to the last transaction price, indicating a phase of capitulation where weaker hands have already sold, and remaining sellers are nearly exhausted. Despite XRP’s price increasing by around 8% over the past week, the depressed MVRV ratios suggest a period of consolidation before potential upward movements.
In the realm of XRP ETFs, data reflects a consistent inflow of funds, with $6.55M recorded on July 2 and a total of $17.19M for the week ending July 2. Institutional buyers have been absorbing the decline in XRP price, evident from nine consecutive weeks of positive net flows, totaling $1.49B in cumulative inflows, approaching the $1B mark in total net assets.
On the derivative front, there has been an 11.57% increase in trading volume and a 4.90% rise in open interest, indicating new money entering the market rather than the closing of existing positions. The long/short ratio shows that shorts slightly outnumber longs, but short positions are feeling the pressure with increasing liquidation costs. Short positions have been losing ground against longs in various timeframes, amplifying the possibility of a short squeeze if the trendline breakout persists.
In terms of price predictions, the upside scenario involves a confirmed breakout above the trendline, leading to a surge towards $1.1850 and potentially $1.2908. Conversely, a rejection at the trendline could push XRP below the 20-day EMA at $1.1094, retesting the $1.00 support level.
