Potential Increase in Ethereum Adoption Linked to Decreased Fees
June 2, 2026
Ethereum has seen a significant decrease in its weekly fee revenue, dropping from over $200 million to approximately $10 million following the Dencun network upgrade in March 2024. Despite this decline, the number of monthly active users on the platform has nearly doubled during the same period.
According to CoinShares, a base-case scenario projects the price of ether to reach $4,935 by 2031, delivering a 16% annualized return. This assessment takes into account two key components of ether’s value: a cash-flow model that forecasts network fee revenue across eight different categories, and a “monetary premium” that recognizes ether’s role as the primary collateral and settlement currency within the largest smart contract ecosystem.
The cash-flow model highlights decentralized exchange (DEX) trading as the primary source of revenue, where users can directly swap crypto assets on-chain without the need for intermediaries. Stablecoin transfers also play a significant role, with Ethereum currently facilitating more than half of the total stablecoin supply, totaling over $300 billion in circulation.
In a less optimistic scenario, Ethereum’s share of total DEX volume could shrink to 11% as other blockchains attract more activity. However, the base case maintains a share of 20%, with the potential for expansion to 35% in the best-case scenario.
One notable development is the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade scheduled for the third quarter of 2026. This upgrade is expected to increase Ethereum’s transaction capacity by 3.3 times, potentially reaching 200 million transactions per block. By doubling the gas limit, which determines the number of transactions fitting into each block, Ethereum aims to enhance transaction processing efficiency.
CoinShares draws a parallel between this expansion and the Jevons paradox, suggesting that lower costs could drive higher overall consumption, potentially leading to increased total fee revenue even as individual transaction costs decrease.
When considering the monetary premium framework, factors such as ETF inflows are crucial. CoinShares forecasts annual ETF inflows to reach $25 billion by 2031 in the base-case scenario. Notably, the CoinShares Bitcoin and Ether ETF (BTF) combines both assets into a single fund with $14.5 million in assets under management and a 1.27% expense ratio.
The report assigns the highest probability to a scenario between the base case and the best-case scenario. In the bull scenario, where ether reaches $14,135 by 2031, total global stablecoin supply is projected to grow to $2.8 trillion, more than nine times the current total.
As Ethereum continues to evolve and introduce upgrades like Glamsterdam, the platform’s fee revenue, user base, and overall value proposition are likely to expand, driving further growth within the ecosystem.
