Why is Dogecoin increasing while its ETFs decline?
July 4, 2026
Dogecoin (DOGE) remained stable this past week, maintaining a price near $0.075 despite its exchange-traded funds experiencing their third-ever outflow. The withdrawal of $871,110 on July 2nd followed the recent revelation by President Trump of earning $635 million in meme coin royalties.
The spot DOGE funds recorded a net outflow on July 2nd, marking the third occasion of such an event since their inception late last year. This outflow halted a streak of nine consecutive zero-flow sessions. Despite this, the DOGE ETFs have not garnered significant institutional support since their launch in late 2025, with daily volumes hovering around $706 million throughout the week leading up to the July 4th holiday.
The origin of this shift traces back to Washington, where Trump’s financial disclosure revealed earnings exceeding $1.4 billion from his 2025 crypto income, primarily stemming from the TRUMP (TRUMP) meme coin introduced in January 2025. Subsequently, the TRUMP token has seen a substantial decline of approximately 96% from its peak of $75, resulting in retail investors losing over $700 million.
The disclosure created a stir in Washington, impacting the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing, which dropped to 39% on prediction markets from over 60% in early June. Elizabeth Warren emphasized the need for the Senate bill to prevent further profit generation by the president and his family while federal regulations are still being formulated. Conversely, Republicans defended the measure, highlighting existing safeguards within the bill. However, uncertainties surrounding its passage linger, with Galaxy Research estimating a 50/50 chance due to a crowded Senate calendar before the August break.
Despite the turbulent developments, Dogecoin’s price remained resilient, bouncing back by around 3% to approximately $0.075 after defending the $0.070 support level. Technical indicators, such as the RSI and a bullish morning star pattern on the daily chart, suggest potential upward momentum. Maintaining levels above $0.070 could propel DOGE towards the $0.076 target indicated by analysts.
Retail traders displayed confidence in DOGE’s potential, evident through the MACD crossover, a 7% surge in futures open interest to $1.04 billion in a single day, and a funding rate spike to 0.0099%, marking a three-month high. Despite the coin facing a myriad of challenges in late June, including a nearly 12% drop and reaching a two-year low of $0.070, the recent rebound showcases resilience in the face of market uncertainties.
As DOGE navigates through market fluctuations and regulatory scrutiny, its recent performance hints at a promising outlook, albeit amid a backdrop of evolving crypto landscapes and political headwinds.
