Analysis: XRP price could have reached $24 without SEC lawsuit
June 14, 2026
XRP, a digital asset, could have potentially surged to over $24 during the 2021 bull market had it not been for the legal actions taken by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), according to a recent analysis. The analysis, conducted by market expert Jungle Inc, made comparisons between the growth patterns of Bitcoin and XRP to arrive at this projection. By extrapolating Bitcoin’s price gains between peak moments in recent bull markets to XRP, Jungle Inc estimated a theoretical high of approximately $24.50 for XRP.
Jungle Inc highlighted a critical divergence in XRP’s trajectory during the 2021 market cycle, emphasizing that XRP failed to uptrend along with the broader cryptocurrency market. The analyst pointed out that the onset of the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020 coincided with a pivotal period where Bitcoin began a significant revaluation phase. This legal hurdle hindered XRP from fully capitalizing on the broader market upswing.
The straightforward calculation employed by Jungle Inc involved applying Bitcoin’s 3.49-fold increase between cyclical peaks in 2021 and the 1.83-fold surge in the 2025 cycle to XRP’s previous high of $3.84 in 2018, resulting in the estimated peak value of $24.50. Notably, Jungle Inc emphasized that this projection was grounded in Bitcoin’s historical patterns rather than speculative expectations.
The tipping point where XRP’s trajectory diverged from the broader market trend was in late 2020. Initially, XRP mirrored the upward momentum alongside the broader cryptocurrency market recovery. However, this alignment was disrupted when the SEC moved to litigate Ripple, leading to XRP being delisted from several exchanges in the U.S. and Canada, subsequently triggering increased selling pressure. Jungle Inc underscored that these unique regulatory challenges significantly impeded XRP’s performance and stifled its participation in the wider market rally.
The comparative data further underscores the discrepancy in performance between Bitcoin and XRP. Presently, XRP is trading at approximately $1.13, marking a stark 70% decline from its peak in 2017-2018. In contrast, Bitcoin has soared to around $63,600, a substantial 223% surge above its previous peak. The analysis illustrates how XRP missed out on substantial market growth opportunities from early 2020 to late 2024 due to the regulatory roadblocks it faced.
Looking ahead, Jungle Inc noted an evolving landscape for XRP, highlighting the resolution of the SEC lawsuit, the introduction of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the expanding institutional infrastructure within the cryptocurrency sector. Despite these positive developments, the analyst anticipates XRP potentially reaching the “low-to-mid $20s” assuming a steady pace of adoption expansion. However, he acknowledged that actual price movements will be contingent on various factors such as the pace of adoption, general market trends, and supply-demand dynamics post-Ripple lawsuit.
Overall, while the potential for XRP to surge to new highs remains plausible, variables such as adoption rates and market trends will ultimately shape the asset’s trajectory in the future market landscape. Monitoring how XRP navigates these challenges will be crucial in understanding its future performance amidst evolving market conditions.
