Cardano Approaching Multi-Year Lows with On-Chain Signals Pointing to a Bottom
June 10, 2026
ply spent in early June, surpassing 20 billion ADA. The largest move occurred on June 9, when dormant supply spent surged to 40.6 billion ADA. This wave of long-held tokens re-entering the market caused a pause in the rise of the average wallet age, confirming that multiple dormant wallets exited their positions. While long-term investors could still continue to sell, such pronounced spikes are often viewed as an exhaustion signal of selling pressure, potentially preceding a market turning point.
Retail Demand and Derivatives PositioningCardano’s sharp decline has coincided with weakening interest from retail participants. The roughly 30% drop last week aligned with a tweet from founder Charles Hoskinson, stating, “I’m taking a break, TTYL.” Subsequent clarifications that he was stepping back only from social media while remaining focused on development did not fully stem market speculation. Derivatives data from CoinGlass shows a steep contraction in ADA futures Open Interest (OI). On Wednesday, OI stands at $347.55 million, its lowest reading since November 10, 2024, down from $585.35 million on May 12. Such a decline typically reflects traders closing leveraged positions as they become more risk-averse.
Technical Landscape: Trend and MomentumFrom a technical standpoint, ADA remains firmly in a downtrend. The token is trading well below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which now serve as overhead resistance. The cluster of medium- and long-term EMAs emphasizes the prevailing bearish structure. The 50-day EMA is positioned around $0.2275, while the 100-day EMA is near $0.2552, underscoring the distance ADA would need to cover to challenge the broader negative trend. Momentum indicators on the daily chart confirm the weak tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 21, deep in oversold territory, indicating intense downside pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines remain below zero, suggesting that bearish momentum is still in control, even if short-lived relief bounces may occur.
