Dogecoin Post-Election Surge: Analyzing What Went Wrong with the $1 Prediction
The surge in Dogecoin’s value following the 2024 U.S. presidential election reignited hopes that the token could finally reach the coveted one-dollar milestone. However, as excitement waned, issues related to the token’s supply, liquidity, and real-world utility emerged, casting doubt on the sustainability of the rally.
The momentum behind Dogecoin began to build shortly after Donald Trump’s election win in November 2024, with the token experiencing a significant increase in value over the course of the month, ultimately closing the year just shy of $0.50. This rally sparked renewed speculation among retail investors regarding the possibility of Dogecoin reaching $1, a key target that has long been seen as a significant milestone for the meme-inspired cryptocurrency.
Speculation around Dogecoin intensified even further when Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy were appointed to lead the newly established Department of Government Efficiency, humorously abbreviated as “DOGE.” The coincidental acronym, combined with Musk’s history of endorsing Dogecoin, prompted a surge in short-term buying activity. However, this momentum proved to be fleeting as market dynamics shifted.
The upward trajectory of Dogecoin stumbled as it approached its late-2024 highs, with mounting selling pressure impeding its progress. Achieving a value of $1 would necessitate a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion based on the current circulating supply, placing Dogecoin among the largest cryptocurrencies globally. Unlike Bitcoin, which has a finite supply cap, Dogecoin sees roughly five billion new tokens enter circulation each year, leading to persistent inflation that requires a considerable level of demand to maintain price stability.
The region around $0.48 emerged as a significant resistance zone due to profit-taking activities, thwarting subsequent attempts at recovery in early 2025. As trading volume dwindled and activity waned, it became evident that the market was largely driven by retail investors, with limited accumulation by major holders during the pullback.
In addition to supply constraints, Dogecoin continues to grapple with challenges related to its real-world utility. The level of merchant acceptance remains relatively low, with usage primarily confined to niche online services rather than widespread adoption for payments. Furthermore, technical limitations such as slow transaction finality compared to traditional payment networks hinder Dogecoin’s competitiveness as a payments protocol.
Despite the launch of regulated investment products related to Dogecoin in late 2025, including U.S.-listed ETFs and trusts, demand for these offerings remained subdued. While these products marked a significant step forward in terms of accessibility, their assets under management and fund inflows paled in comparison to Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products, signaling a lack of strong investor interest in Dogecoin.
