PlanB remains bullish on BTC, predicting up to $1M despite potential for lower price fluctuations
July 1, 2026
Recent comments from PlanB, the well-known crypto analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model, imply that Bitcoin could plummet below its current value despite appearing undervalued. While Bitcoin was trading below its 200-week moving average of around $62,000 at the end of June, it still remained above its realized price of $52,000. Realized price reflects the general market’s cost basis and accounts for the price at the latest coin trading, with PlanB noting that historical bear market bottoms have generally fallen below realized price.
Despite the potential for Bitcoin to dip below its perceived value, PlanB maintains his optimistic perspective on Bitcoin’s future valuation. In response to a user’s comment questioning his attributed $250,000 valuation for this cycle, PlanB distinguished between valuation and price. He mentioned that the fundamental valuation, grounded in scarcity and Stock-to-Flow, remains within the range of $250,000 to $1 million. However, the current price is significantly lower than this value, indicating that Bitcoin is undervalued and can further depreciate.
When discussing the possibility of a deeper capitulation phase, PlanB acknowledged the likelihood of another wave of capitulation or liquidation following historical patterns. Regarding the shift in his sentiment towards Bitcoin, PlanB indicated that the signals began appearing last December but were solidified in February when Bitcoin’s RSI, a pivotal trader momentum indicator, fell below the 50 level.
Contributions from CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju complemented this narrative, highlighting the necessity of substantial capital inflows to propel Bitcoin to its next parabolic cycle. Ju’s comparative analysis from 2011 to the present cycle underscored that current market conditions require significantly higher capital to stimulate Bitcoin’s price increase. For instance, while $5 million could double BTC’s price in 2011, it now demands approximately $101 billion in net inflows for similar growth.
Moreover, Ju indicated that Bitcoin’s forthcoming parabolic cycle would likely necessitate trillions in net capital inflows, emphasizing the importance of deeper institutional adoption over individual retail-led ETF trading. This perspective supports the notion that while Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to its valuation, substantial financial backing from institutional investors will be integral to driving its future growth as per the market demands.
In conclusion, PlanB and CryptoQuant’s assessment highlights the disparity between Bitcoin’s prevailing price and its actual valuation. Continued bearish sentiments, potential further price depreciation, and the requirement for substantial capital inflows underscore the complex interplay of factors shaping Bitcoin’s price trajectory and future valuation.
