Bitwise’s Hougan predicts bitcoin reaching $1 million in 10 years
March 12, 2026
Bitcoin has been relatively stable in the midst of global uncertainty surrounding oil prices, inflation, and geopolitical tensions, hovering around the $70,000 mark. While the current atmosphere remains cautious, there are experts like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan who are optimistic about bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. In a recent blog post, Hougan made a bold prediction that bitcoin could potentially reach $1 million within the next 10 years, acknowledging that this number may seem far-fetched at first glance, considering it represents a 14x increase from its current price.
Hougan argues that bitcoin is emerging as a viable store-of-value asset, comparable to gold, and although it is more volatile, it is increasingly competing for the same market share. He explains that estimating the value of bitcoin involves calculating the size of the store-of-value market, determining bitcoin’s share of that market, and dividing by the total supply of 21 million bitcoins to arrive at an implied price. Currently, the store-of-value market is valued at $38 trillion, with gold accounting for $36 trillion and bitcoin making up $1.4 trillion, around 4% of the total market.
For bitcoin to reach $1 million, it would need to capture over 50% of the store-of-value market, which Hougan acknowledges is a challenging feat. However, he highlights the fact that the store-of-value market is not static and has significantly expanded over the past two decades. As concerns regarding fiat currency devaluation increase, the store-of-value market is likely to continue growing, which could potentially benefit bitcoin.
Hougan emphasizes that the pace of bitcoin adoption, the movement away from fiat currencies, and other factors could accelerate the timeline for bitcoin to reach $1 million, possibly in less than a decade. Despite the current market conditions, Hougan believes that bitcoin may be in the early stages of a positive trend, likening it to the beginning of a crypto spring following a crypto winter. While there may be fluctuations in price in the short term, Hougan suggests that today’s prices may seem undervalued in the coming years.
In the short term, experts like Nic Puckrin note positive indicators for bitcoin, such as continuously positive ETF flows since the onset of geopolitical tensions and consistent net buyer volume indicating buyer control. Puckrin mentions that for a bullish trend confirmation, bitcoin would need to remain above $68,700 in the near future. Despite uncertainties, the potential for bitcoin to reach new heights in the long run remains a topic of interest for many in the cryptocurrency space.
