Stifel predicts potential Bitcoin crash to $38000: Analysis based on 15-year trendline

February 26, 2026

Stifel Financial, an established investment banking institution with more than a century of history, has raised warnings about the potential for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) to plummet to $38,000. This forecast represents a significant 43% decline from Bitcoin’s current price levels hovering around $65,000, and if realized, it would mark a steep 70% fall from the peak of $126,000 observed in October.
The analysis fueling this projection comes from Barry Bannister, the chief equity strategist at Stifel, who delves into 15 years of bear market data surrounding Bitcoin. By charting a trendline that connects major crash bottoms dating back to 2010 – encompassing substantial declines of 93% in 2011, 84% in 2015, 83% in 2018, and 76% in 2022 – Bannister has identified a pattern where each subsequent low surpasses the one before, creating an ascending support line. If history is an indicator, this trendline could dictate a floor at $38,000 in the current cycle.
The methodology underlying Stifel’s forecast is straightforward yet backed by a robust historical trend. Following the stark drops in value experienced by Bitcoin during the 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 crashes, which saw the cryptocurrency tumble to varying depths, the support levels at each instance managed to ascend. Despite recurrent speculator losses, long-term holders continued to accumulate Bitcoin at higher price points, leading to an undeniable upward trajectory in floor prices. This trendline has now been extended to the current cycle, suggesting a potential downturn to $38,000 from Bitcoin’s present value of $65,000.
However, the evolving landscape surrounding Bitcoin has introduced new complexities that challenge its traditional role as a fiat hedge. Initially conceived as a shelter against fiat devaluation, Bitcoin now displays a striking correlation of 0.78 with the Nasdaq 100, indicating a shift towards behaving more like tech stocks than a hedge against the weakening dollar. Recent Federal Reserve actions have further compounded this sentiment, with a hawkish approach to monetary policy signaling a potentially prolonged period of restraint up to 2027.
On the contrary, staunch Bitcoin advocates remain optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s rebound potential, rejecting Stifel’s bearish outlook. JPMorgan envisions a surge to $170,000 within the upcoming year, with comparisons to gold underscoring Bitcoin’s undervaluation relative to the precious metal. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is even more bullish, eyeing a range of $200,000 to $250,000 by the closing of 2026, citing a cleanup of leverage in the wake of the October 2025 crash as propelling Bitcoin towards growth.
In light of these divergent forecasts, the market is poised in a delicate balancing act, awaiting key thresholds to ascertain the trajectory of Bitcoin’s future. While Stifel’s $38,000 prediction and JPMorgan’s $170,000 projection offer competing narratives, the newfound alignment of Bitcoin with tech assets and macroeconomic shifts signal an uncertain road ahead for the cryptocurrency. Ultimately, only time will unravel the fate of Bitcoin, shedding light on whether Stifel’s caution or the bullish optimism of other analysts will prove prescient.