Have we hit the lowest point for bitcoin yet? Many experts remain skeptical.
February 20, 2026
The debate continues among experts regarding whether bitcoin has bottomed out. Bitcoin has been facing challenges in surpassing the mid- to low $60,000 range, under pressure due to macro-level factors, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory, and escalating geopolitical tensions. Additionally, persistent effects from the October 10 liquidation event have contributed to bitcoin’s decline of almost 50% from its October 6 all-time high. Data from SoSoValue reveals significant outflows from bitcoin ETFs this month, with fears and concerns escalating as Google searches for “bitcoin going to zero” reached levels not seen since FTX’s collapse in 2022.
Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, highlighted the importance of new investors entering the market for a true bottom to be established. He emphasized the need for a shift in ownership, including retail investors, VC capital, traditional institutions, and corporate institutions. According to Magadini, the final phase of a bullish scenario would involve sovereign ownership, but this remains a distant possibility as the necessary transfer of ownership has not yet materialized. He suggested that for a real turnaround, there needs to be a recycling of ownership through corporate and ETF divestitures.
Looking ahead, Magadini pointed to the cyclical nature of bitcoin and potential timing indicators for a reversal. He referenced the projected October bottom based on the four-year cycle, coinciding with the mid-term elections, which might bring more clarity to the market. However, Magadini expressed skepticism about the CLARITY Act serving as a significant rally catalyst, given the historical ineffectiveness of similar regulatory changes on market dynamics.
According to Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, bitcoin has yet to establish a firm bottom, with historical patterns indicating potential levels near the 200-week moving average and realized price. Liquidity conditions currently do not favor a sustainable rebound in bitcoin’s price, suggesting that any upticks should be approached cautiously. Puckrin highlighted the importance of on-chain profit metrics entering capitulation territory to signal an impending floor for bitcoin.
Technical analysis by Kyle Rodda further reinforced the uncertainty surrounding bitcoin’s bottoming process, with a historical tendency for significant drawdowns exceeding 50% in bear markets. Jean-David Pequignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit, echoed the sentiment, noting the high-stakes consolidation phase bitcoin finds itself in, characterized by tight trading ranges and market reactions to external stimuli.
Despite the prevailing pessimism, Abra founder and CEO Bill Barhydt remained cautiously optimistic, expecting significant market legislation and liquidity injections to propel bitcoin to new heights within the next 18 months. Barhydt emphasized the importance of patience and realistic expectations amid the current market volatility, suggesting a potential price range of $50,000 to $95,000 as a benchmark for future growth.