XRP Price Forecast: Can XRP Overcome its February Trends in 2026?
February 17, 2026
XRP has demonstrated a consistent trend of losses in February, with declines occurring in 7 out of 11 years since 2014, resulting in an average monthly loss of 3%. Particularly severe drops were witnessed in February 2014, when XRP plummeted 33.4%, and in February 2018, with a 22.1% decrease. The situation in 2026 is starkly different, as XRP has already experienced a significant crash of over 30% this month, hitting a low of $1.11 before rebounding to $1.40. The key question now is whether this downward trajectory has concluded or if there is more to come.
Several factors indicate that XRP’s usual February curse may be broken this year, including the presence of ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, the starting price, and low funding rates. Although these factors do not guarantee a reversal, they set the stage for a unique February compared to previous years.
One major shift in 2026 is the presence of institutional buyers due to the introduction of U.S. spot XRP ETFs in November 2025. These ETFs have attracted over $1.3 billion in cumulative inflows, leading to sustained demand and creating a price floor that was absent in earlier Februarys. Despite the recent price dip, institutional accumulation continued, providing a buffer against further declines.
Moreover, the regulatory uncertainty stemming from Ripple’s SEC lawsuit, which loomed over previous Februarys, has dissipated. Following the agreement between the SEC and Ripple in August 2025 to dismiss their appeals, it was confirmed that XRP is not deemed a security when traded on public exchanges. This resolution alleviated a significant source of investor apprehension, which could have exacerbated XRP’s weakness in prior Februarys.
Furthermore, the XRP price started February 2026 from a relatively low point of approximately $1.45, representing a substantial decline from its peak of $3.65 in July 2025. This compressed starting price leaves less room for further falls, making it potentially less susceptible to steep declines compared to previous Februarys.
Additionally, XRP’s funding rate on Binance recently hit a low of -0.028%, indicating that short sellers are facing increasing pressure and fatigue. Historically, such low funding rates have preceded price reversals, as seen in April 2025 when similar levels resulted in an eventual rally from $1.60 to $3.65 by mid-July. The current scenario suggests that selling pressure may be waning, potentially leading to a sharp recovery above $2 before the end of February.
Despite these favorable signals, risks remain, particularly the close correlation between XRP and Bitcoin movements. The weakness in Bitcoin, combined with high rates and risk aversion in the market, continues to exert downward pressure on XRP. With XRP already experiencing a significant decline this month, a strong rally is needed to reverse the trend, and the likelihood of a positive February remains slim based on current market conditions.
In conclusion, the February curse that has plagued XRP in the past decades may finally be broken in 2026, thanks to unique market conditions. While challenges persist, such as Bitcoin’s influence and macroeconomic pressures, the presence of institutional buyers, regulatory clarity, and exhausted selling may pave the way for a different outcome this February. The ultimate test lies in whether XRP can maintain its price above critical levels to signal a break in the curse or succumb to historical patterns with another February of losses.
