Bitcoin price could reach between $300,000 and $1.5 million by 2030, predicts Ark Invest
The future trajectory of Bitcoin’s price is likely to be determined more by the extent of investors’ exposure to the asset rather than their belief in it, as per insights shared by David Puell from Ark Invest. Puell, an analyst and associate portfolio manager specializing in digital assets at Ark Invest, emphasized that Bitcoin has entered a phase of institutional maturity, thanks to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and the expansion of digital asset treasury strategies.
The establishment of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has significantly influenced the flow of capital into the cryptocurrency market since gaining regulatory approval. Within just 18 months, these products have attracted over $50 billion in net inflows, reflecting a notable shift towards institutional and regulated access to Bitcoin without the need for self-custody. Prominent entities like BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) have played a pivotal role in driving liquidity and tightening supply, collectively controlling substantial amounts of Bitcoin.
The increased adoption of ETFs and digital asset treasury structures has led to the absorption of approximately 12% of Bitcoin’s total supply, surpassing initial expectations and becoming a significant driver of price movements. Concurrently, long-term Bitcoin holders who acquired the cryptocurrency over a decade ago have become more inclined to capitalize on profits during price surges, creating a compelling interplay between profit-taking and institutional buying through ETFs and DATs.
Despite these opposing forces, Ark Invest remains steadfast in its long-term valuation framework, projecting Bitcoin’s price to potentially reach $300,000 in a bear case scenario, around $710,000 in a base case, and up to $1.5 million in a bull case by 2030, as outlined in its valuation model. Puell underscored the role of Bitcoin as a digital store of value, with the bullish scenario primarily driven by institutional investments and Bitcoin’s increasingly limited circulating supply.
Macroeconomic factors could further bolster Bitcoin’s prospects in the years ahead, particularly with the potential cessation of U.S. monetary tightening leading to increased liquidity, historically beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, Bitcoin’s diminishing volatility and decreased drawdowns could enhance its appeal to risk-averse investors, paving the way for a more sustainable and less erratic growth trajectory.
Puell highlighted the evolving landscape of regulations, the emergence of staking-related ETFs, and rising state-level interest, such as in Texas, as positive long-term trends for Bitcoin. While some anticipated safe-haven demand from emerging markets has shifted towards stablecoins, the ongoing interest from gold-related use cases serves to balance this out within Ark’s strategic model. Maintaining a focus on long-term prospects, Ark Invest aims to navigate through Bitcoin’s evolving demand dynamics while upholding its fundamental investment thesis, anticipating a future where Bitcoin evolves into a stable, institutionally-held asset of significant value.
