Potential breakout around $3650 expected with bullish divergence and ascending triangle pattern.

Ethereum (ETH) is currently poised for a potential breakout near the $3,650 resistance level, with various technical patterns and on-chain metrics converging to indicate an upward move. Despite recent market volatility, traders and analysts are closely watching whether Ethereum can hold above the $3,000–$3,100 range.

According to analysts from Swallow Academy, buyers have shown strong support around $3,100, leading to the formation of an ascending triangle pattern on the ETH chart. This pattern typically indicates a period of consolidation before a potential breakout, with a historical probability of upward breaks in around 68–77% of cases. However, the outcome may vary based on market conditions and require significant trading volume to confirm.

Market Structure Break (MSB) is a key factor to watch, where a conclusive move beyond the current resistance could signal renewed upward momentum. Conversely, failure to break above could result in continued sideways movement for Ethereum. Technical data suggests that Ethereum is currently in a defined volatility cycle, with heightened market activity expected around November 20, 2025.

Key indicators, such as the HA-Low Indicator and the M-Signal Level, provide mixed signals for Ethereum’s short-term trend and price stability. It is crucial for Ethereum to maintain support above key levels, ranging from $3,025 to $2,419, to avoid significant downside pressure. Despite potential support and resistance levels, long-term holder wallets have increased their ETH holdings in 2025, indicating confidence in future growth.

Bullish sentiment is further supported by Ethereum’s daily RSI showing bullish divergence, suggesting a possible early recovery in the near term. However, the $3,500–$3,650 zone poses a significant resistance level that must be breached for sustained bullish momentum. Short-term traders may find opportunities in a breakout above $3,650, while long-term holders should monitor support levels above the 200-week moving average for structural stability.

Overall, while technical indicators and on-chain data point towards a positive outlook for Ethereum, traders and holders should remain cautious of potential risks and uncertainties in the market. Managing risk and closely monitoring key resistance and support levels will be essential for navigating Ethereum’s current price movements and potential breakout scenarios.