JPMorgan forecasts Bitcoin to reach $165K by end of year
JPMorgan recently raised their year-end price target for bitcoin to $165,000 due to the cryptocurrency’s current undervaluation compared to gold and the significant inflows it has seen from retail investors.
A recent report led by JPMorgan managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou highlighted the shift in bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted value compared to gold. At the close of 2024, the cryptocurrency was considered to be overvalued by $36,000 relative to gold. However, it is now estimated to be undervalued by about $46,000. With the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio dropping below 2.0, bitcoin now requires only 1.85 times more risk capital than gold.
By JPMorgan metrics, bitcoin’s market cap would need to increase by 42% to align with the private gold investment market’s value. This implies a theoretical price of $165,000 for bitcoin, according to the report. It was noted that this mechanical exercise could suggest significant upside potential for bitcoin.
JPMorgan attributes much of bitcoin’s recent market trends to the “debasement trade,” driven by a surge in demand for alternative stores of value amidst concerns about government deficits, inflation, and weakening fiat currencies. Retail investors have been at the forefront of this trend, with substantial flows into both bitcoin and gold ETFs since the latter part of 2024. In early 2025, there was a surge in bitcoin ETF inflows, although the momentum slowed down in August. However, the flows into gold ETFs have narrowed the gap between the two assets.
Although institutional activity has increased through CME futures, JPMorgan analysts observed that these positions are trailing behind ETF flows, indicating that retail participation is the primary factor propelling the trend. They also noted that the surge in gold prices has made bitcoin more appealing relative to gold.
JPMorgan’s bullish price target for bitcoin coincides with a broader optimistic outlook for the cryptocurrency. Various analysts are predicting even higher prices, with some forecasting levels as high as $200,000 by the end of the year. Currently, bitcoin is trading around $119,000 based on market data.
The collective bullish forecasts for bitcoin underscore the growing confidence in the digital asset’s future prospects. As bitcoin consolidation continues to outpace other traditional assets like gold, investors are closely monitoring developments in the cryptocurrency market for potential investment opportunities. Retail participation remains a significant driver of market dynamics, shaping the trajectory of bitcoin’s price movements and reinforcing its status as a sought-after digital asset in the evolving financial landscape.
