Will Cardano remain in the top 10 cryptocurrencies by 2030? Exploring its long-term potential in blockchain technology
Cardano, a blockchain platform that emerged as a third-generation player with a focus on research-driven development, finds itself at a crucial juncture as it enters 2025. The success of Cardano in the coming years hinges on its ability to address two key issues: long-term blockchain adoption and institutional support.
In January 2025, Cardano transitioned into the Voltaire era, introducing community governance through CIP-1694. This shift allowed ADA holders to participate directly in decision-making processes by voting on proposals and managing the network’s treasury. Alongside this governance update, the Vasil hard fork in 2022 enhanced scalability and smart contract functionality by introducing features like reference inputs and inline datums. These changes reflect Cardano’s commitment to academic rigor and peer-reviewed development under the leadership of Charles Hoskinson.
Despite these technical advancements, Cardano has struggled to achieve widespread adoption. With only 59 active decentralized applications (dApps) and a total value locked (TVL) of $380 million, Cardano lags far behind industry leaders like Ethereum and Solana. The platform’s largest dApp, a decentralized exchange aggregator, sees minimal daily user activity, indicating a liquidity gap that needs to be addressed.
To revitalize its standing, Cardano has shifted its focus to become a smart contract layer for Bitcoin DeFi. By leveraging Bitcoin’s substantial liquidity pool, Cardano aims to facilitate Bitcoin-based decentralized finance applications, stablecoins, and cross-chain integrations. However, this strategic pivot remains untested, with critics raising concerns about the fragmented nature of Bitcoin’s ecosystem and Cardano’s lack of a proven use case or developer community.
Institutional traction has also been a challenge for Cardano. The platform’s market cap of $31.59 billion and low open interest in ADA derivatives highlight the struggle to attract significant institutional interest. While staking participation is relatively high, it has not translated into substantial institutional capital inflows. The lack of a clear narrative comparable to Ethereum’s programmable money vision or Solana’s speed-centric appeal compounds this issue.
Looking ahead to 2030, Cardano’s viability will depend on several key factors. The successful execution of the Bitcoin DeFi strategy, increased developer and user adoption within its ecosystem of over 1,300 projects, and building institutional trust through enhanced governance and strategic partnerships will be critical. However, competition from emerging chains like Sei and Sui, which offer faster finality and lower fees, poses a significant threat to Cardano’s position in the market.
In conclusion, Cardano’s path to 2030 is a challenging one, marked by the need to deliver on its promises, differentiate itself in a crowded market, and prove its relevancy in an ever-evolving industry. While the platform has a solid technical foundation and governance model, overcoming past hurdles and establishing a clear value proposition will be essential for its continued success in the years to come.
