Potential of Cardano at $5 Could be Unlocked by Regulatory Clarity and Rate Cuts

September 7, 2025

There is growing confidence in the prospect of Cardano (ADA) expanding its presence in traditional financial markets, with expectations of securing regulated exposure through a potential spot ETF. The final verdict on the Cardano spot ETF is scheduled for October 26, 2025, with leading issuers such as Grayscale making progress with S-1 filings. Predictions indicate a high likelihood of approval, with Polymarket pricing in an 87% chance and Bloomberg analysts estimating a 75% probability. This positive outlook is driven by the anticipation of increased institutional investment and regulatory clarity once the CLARITY Act is passed by the U.S. Senate around October, paving the way for more secure cryptocurrency regulations.

In addition to regulatory developments, there is a sense of optimism surrounding anticipated interest rate cuts in the United States, expected to begin as early as September with a potential 50 basis point reduction. These rate cuts could spur interest in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like Cardano. The market is eager to tap into the untapped potential of TradFi markets to bring more liquidity and investment opportunities to Cardano.

Technical analysis reveals a bullish trend on the ADA/USD chart, with a bull flag pattern emerging over the past month. This pattern signals the potential for a breakout that could reignite ADA’s upward trajectory observed in early August. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing neutrality at 50, hinting at a possible reversal, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching a golden cross, typically associated with the beginning of a new uptrend. If this breakout materializes, ADA could test the ascending channel established since late July, reaching $1.20, signifying a 40% surge from current levels.

A successful breakout beyond this channel could propel ADA to $1.70, representing a 105% increase by September, driven by the anticipated rate cuts. However, potential resistance may be encountered near the year-to-date high around $1.40. Looking ahead to October, the approval of the ETF could be a game-changer for ADA, potentially propelling the price towards its previous all-time high of near $3, translating to a 255% surge. In the longer term, ADA has the potential to reach $5, marking a significant 500% gain, as speculative demand aligns with institutional interest.

While the prevailing regulatory and macroeconomic conditions paint a promising picture for Cardano’s price trajectory, analysts emphasize the importance of regulatory decisions and broader market dynamics in determining actual outcomes. These catalysts, when combined, set the stage for a potential surge in ADA’s value, with the coming months poised to unveil whether Cardano will achieve new all-time highs.