Bitcoin Price Prediction: $500K Targeted by Tuur Demeester During Mid-Cycle Rally
Bitcoin’s current bull cycle may not have reached its peak yet, as per a recent analysis by Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research. The experts posit that the market is currently experiencing a period of “mid-cycle strength,” with potential price targets soaring to $500,000 or even higher.
The Adamant Research study, spearheaded by Demeester, indicates that Bitcoin could see a surge of 4–10 times its present value. This bold prediction is supported by various on-chain metrics, such as HODLer Net Position Change and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), suggesting that a significant portion of the Bitcoin supply (50–70%) is still in profit, reflecting optimism in the mid-cycle rather than signaling a peak in the market.
Demeester expressed confidence in this assessment, stating that the current phase could be the midpoint of a substantial bull run for Bitcoin. From its existing range, there is a plausible scenario for a 4-10 times appreciation in value, potentially propelling Bitcoin price targets to over $500,000.
Despite potential risks like major exchange breaches or the dispersion of coins following bankruptcy, the analysts believe that these obstacles are unlikely to hinder the ongoing bull market. For instance, recent incidents like the distribution of Mt. Gox assets and the liquidation of 80,000 BTC in July 2025 had minimal impact, with price movements limited to 4%.
While recognizing that approximately 10% of the total BTC supply is held by Coinbase, raising concerns regarding centralization, the researchers point out that ETF providers are diversifying their custody strategies. They advise investors to focus exclusively on Bitcoin, dismissing alternative cryptocurrencies due to their lack of network effect, security, and monetary integrity compared to BTC.
The surge in institutional adoption, escalating fiscal deficits, and the growing acceptance of Bitcoin in governmental policies—such as the establishment of the National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the swift adoption of ETFs, currently securing around 1.4 million BTC—further reinforce the case for Bitcoin as the preferred digital asset.
In terms of investment strategy, Demeester and his team recommend a 5% allocation to Bitcoin as a hedge against systemic risks, with higher allocations reflecting greater confidence. For secure custody, they suggest implementing collaborative multi-signature setups, especially for new investors, to strike a balance between safety and control.
In conclusion, Demeester believes that, given the favorable macroeconomic conditions and institutional interest, Bitcoin’s current “mid-cycle” positioning could pave the way for substantial gains in the coming years, potentially marking a historic chapter in Bitcoin’s trajectory.
