Ripple XRP price poised for breakout as SEC update and ETF flows align – Trading News
XRP-USD has experienced a significant surge in July, jumping from below $2.90 to a high of $3.84 within a span of just twelve days. This rally surpassed the psychological barrier of $3.00 and was accompanied by a massive $33 million volume spike in just one minute, emphasizing the intensity of the movement. Despite retracing back to $2.95, the token found solid support between $2.90 and $3.00, indicating strong buyer interest at those levels. Noteworthy is the influx of over $300 million in net ETF inflows into leveraged XRP vehicles, showing robust on-chain conviction as August started with prices consolidating above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $3.10.
As the date for the SEC’s next brief in the Ripple case approaches on August 15, all eyes are on the regulatory landscape. Analysts believe that any indication of an appeal withdrawal or settlement could lead to XRP-USD being classified as a non-security, removing a barrier that has been limiting speculative interest. In parallel, the introduction of the ProShares XRP futures ETF last month, along with numerous spot-XRP ETF applications, has raised expectations of an 80% probability of spot-ETF approval by the end of the year. The potential alignment of regulatory clarity with institutional product launches may serve as a catalyst for XRP to challenge its resistance at $4.20 and strive for its all-time high at $3.84.
The movement of whales and institutional investors has been crucial in driving and controlling the breakout. While large holders withdrew over $2.1 billion in sell orders during the rally, leveraged long positions worth $14 million emerged on major exchanges. Despite this push and pull dynamic, daily net accumulation from experienced addresses has consistently exceeded distribution on half of the trading days since the surge in July. This reinforces the belief that strong support lies around $3.00 and that sustained consolidation above that level often precedes the next upward move.
In terms of technical analysis, XRP-USD has broken out of a multi-year triangle formation, with the RSI above 61 and the MACD showing positive momentum. Immediate resistance is at $3.84, followed by Fibonacci extension levels at $4.46 and $3.80. Holding the $3.00 mark could potentially lead to a push towards $5.53 and even higher fan-based targets. Failure to maintain $2.76 could result in a retest of $2.60, where buyers previously stepped in aggressively in mid-July.
New payment narratives like Remittix’s PayFi protocols have begun challenging XRP’s cross-border utility thesis. Remittix, with its direct crypto-to-fiat capabilities, threatens to divert attention away from XRP in the payments space. Additionally, supportive stablecoin regulations in the U.S. may redirect capital towards Ripple’s RLUSD, potentially increasing burn rates on the XRP ledger and transaction volume. XRP must quickly reclaim and sustain $3.50 to counteract this narrative shift.
Various forecasts and price targets project different outcomes for XRP in the medium to long term. Machine learning models suggest a modest rise to $3.12 by the end of August 2025, while CoinCodex anticipates average levels around $3.88 and highs nearing $4.95 in 2026. Long-range projections up to 2030 range from $8.00 to $15.00, driven by factors like enterprise adoption of RippleNet and CBDC integrations. The most bullish predictions could see XRP reaching $48.90 based on historical parabolic trends but also bear significant risks. Overall, a consensus among professional analyses centers around $5.00-$7.00 as the next major target for XRP.
In conclusion, the convergence of factors such as on-chain momentum, impending regulatory events, growing institutional ETF offerings, and technical indicators signify a critical juncture for XRP’s price action. Investors and traders should remain vigilant as market dynamics evolve and new narratives emerge to shape the future trajectory of XRP.
