Bitcoin Traders Prepare for Positive July as BTC ETFs See $124M Inflows

Bitcoin traders are eyeing a potentially bullish July following months of price fluctuations. Since April, Bitcoin’s price has oscillated between $59,000 and $74,000. However, historical patterns indicate the likelihood of a positive trend in July.

Seasonal cycles play a significant role in influencing cryptocurrency prices. For instance, profit-taking activities around tax season in April and May, as well as increased demand in December, can lead to predictable shifts in the market.

BTC has been trading within a narrow range due to various factors such as significant sales, upcoming selling pressure, outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and a prevailing negative sentiment among retail traders.

Despite these challenges, July traditionally emerges as a strong month for Bitcoin. Recent data shows that the first day of July witnessed U.S.-listed ETFs recording nearly $130 million in inflows, the highest since early June after more than $900 million in outflows over the previous month.

According to Singapore-based QCP Capital, Bitcoin has historically exhibited a median return of 9.6% in July, often rebounding strongly following a negative June performance. The firm highlighted that recent flows in options markets suggest a potential upward movement in anticipation of the launch of an Ethereum spot ETF.

Over the past decade, Bitcoin has shown an average gain of more than 11% in July, with positive returns in 7 out of 10 years. Additionally, data from crypto fund Matrixport indicates that July returns from 2019 to 2022 ranged from 20% to 27%.

Seasonality in the crypto market refers to the regular and predictable changes that occur annually. While these fluctuations may seem random, they are often influenced by factors like profit-taking, which leads to drawdowns in April and May, and the optimistic “Santa Claus” rally in December, signaling increased demand.

As traders gear up for potential bullish movements in July, the market remains cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s performance in the coming weeks. The historical trends and seasonal patterns suggest that Bitcoin could see positive momentum in the near future.